Russia had one of the world’s highest life expectancy gender gaps. Then Putin sent hundreds of thousands of men to war.

Russia has had significantly more women than men for decades. The country’s 2020 census found that women and girls made up about 54 percent of Russia’s population, while men made up about 46 percent. Since February 2022, this gender gap has almost certainly become even more pronounced, as more than 120,000 Russian men have been killed in the war against Ukraine. Journalists from the independent outlet Cherta Media spoke to demographers and sociologists about why Russia has had such a gender imbalance for so long — and how the invasion of Ukraine is affecting the situation. Meduza shares an abridged translation of their report.

Worldwide, about 105 boys are born for every 100 girls. At the same time, early childhood mortality is higher among boys than among girls. As a result, even with the small “head start” for boys, the ratio of boys to girls (and later men to women) within each generation becomes smaller over time, and by a certain age, the number of women in a given age cohort typically surpasses the number of men. But while in Japan, for example, this happens at about 56 years old, in Russia it happens at around 30.

Life expectancy is lower for men than for women in nearly every country in the world. In some countries, however, this difference is merely three or four years, while in others, it can reach 10 years or more. The latter scenario is especially common for post-Soviet countries.

In 2022, Russia became the country with the largest difference between the life expectancies of men and women: on average, men live nearly 11 years less. The result is a population gap of about 10 million: 68.4 million men vs. 78.8 million women. And the war only promises to exacerbate the disparity.

Why are there fewer men than women in Russia?

While it’s commonly believed that Russia’s gender imbalance stems directly from the turmoil of the early 20th century (when it experienced the Russian Civil War, the world wars, and the mass repressions of the 1930s), these events don’t explain why the gap persists, according to demographer Alexey Raksha. This is because while a majority of the people dying in them were men, the youngest surviving participants are currently over 95 years old. In the second half of the last century, meanwhile, there were no wars that significantly impacted the country’s demographic situation; even the Afghan War and the Chechen Wars killed a relatively small portion of Russia’s population.

In fact, the current imbalance is due to the high rate of male deaths due to everyday causes, such as murders, suicides, car crashes, and other fatal accidents. Male mortality from chronic diseases is also exceptionally high, and many Russian men lead lifestyles that accelerate the progression of these diseases, Raksha says. The death rate from cardiovascular diseases among men aged 16–59, for example, is 3.1 times higher than among women of the same age.

“One major factor here is toxic masculinity — a kind of male behavior that’s prevalent in certain countries, including Russia,” sociologist Irina Tartakovskaya tells Cherta. “Men in these countries often pay less attention to their health because it doesn’t fit their idea of a ‘real man,’ the idea that one should be strong and ignore any ailment they’re suffering from. This model leads to risky behavior among men: involvement in criminal activity, aggressive driving, and, as a result, car accidents — all of which increase male mortality.”

But the biggest reason for the high mortality rate among men is alcohol abuse. “Every year, at least 150,000–200,000 people die in Russia due to alcohol, and about 80 percent of them are men,” Raksha says. “Alcohol leads to the development of various fatal illnesses, from liver cirrhosis to cardiovascular diseases, and often triggers external causes of death as well. For example, a majority of murders are committed under the influence of alcohol.” He notes that Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev’s anti-alcoholism campaign in the 1980s led to a 3.5-year increase in male life expectancy.

“From 2006 to 2018, the consumption of life-threatening beverages decreased as people began switching to ‘lighter’ alcohol,” Raksha explains. “However, the situation changed drastically due to the ‘vodka lobby.’ In the 2010s, [the authorities] ‘cracked down’ on beer and other low-alcohol drinks, imposing new customs duties and increasing excise taxes on them but not on stronger beverages. By the start of 2024, the situation had become even worse: the full force of excise taxes and duties, along with further legal restrictions, had hit wine, beer, and low-alcohol beverages the hardest, while duties on cheap imported liquor didn’t just remain the same but were lowered. As a result, people gradually started returning to stronger drinks like domestic whiskey, which inevitably leads to an increase in mortality.”

The high prevalence in Russia of alcoholism and tobacco use — another major contributor to the high male mortality rate — is attributable to the country’s social conditions, Tartakovskaya says. According to her, most Russians have few opportunities for social mobility or maintaining a high quality of life, which leads them to engage in destructive behaviors to cope with the stress.

What role does the Soviet past play?

In the 1960s, male mortality began rising in all socialist countries, while female mortality, if it increased at all, rose at a much lower rate. The mortality gap widened, and this trend has persisted ever since. According to a British study from 1996, the difference between mortality rates in Eastern Europe and those in Western Europe was primarily a result of differing behavioral patterns: neglecting one’s personal health, as well as alcohol and tobacco addiction, were particularly common among men in socialist bloc countries.

Analysts from the think tank To Be Precise have identified several factors that they say likely contributed to the higher levels of destructive behaviors in these countries. These include:

• Ideological norms that prioritized societal interests over individual well-being and promoted the idea that “life should include an element of heroism”;
• A higher share of the population doing hazardous jobs or working in facilities with unhealthy conditions;
• The media’s promotion of the ideal man as someone strong who never complains.

“Ideas about masculinity differed between socialist and capitalist countries. In capitalist societies, men could assert themselves by starting businesses, building careers, and making profits. Someone with these aspirations would take care of his health, as it was an important tool for his success,” Tartakovskaya says. “But there was no equivalent in socialist societies. The pursuit of personal success and good earnings was frowned upon as ‘careerism’ and seen as a denial of societal norms and values. This meant that men could assert themselves only through service to the state, often at the expense of their health.”

These, along with other societal patterns with roots in the Soviet period, have been “absorbed” into the cultures and lifestyles of people in former socialist countries and continue to affect them today: in almost all such countries, men live significantly shorter lives than women. Overcoming these patterns will be a long and difficult process, according to an analyst from To Be Precise: “Behavioral models aren’t easily changed, and 30–40 years is a short period for this kind of shift.”

The social effects of gender gaps

Large gender imbalances can lead to a range of problems in modern societies, according to Tartakovskaya. “When there’s a shortage of brides and numerous young men unable to start families, it typically generates social tension and widespread frustration. [Among other things,] it often gives rise to incel [“involuntary celibate”] movements,” she explains.

On the other hand, a shortage of men creates its own set of problems. In traditional societies, according to Tartakovskaya, it leads to a labor shortage and a subordinate role for women, who are forced to compete for men’s attention and the chance to have a family. “When there were too few men, many women would remain unmarried [and] would be treated with contempt and scorn,” she says.

While contemporary Russian society generally puts much less social pressure on women to start families, Tartakovskaya says, the demographic imbalance still poses major challenges for them. “No matter how modern our world becomes, traditional systems continue to shape us and our understanding of it. Girls are taught from a young age in [Russian] society that they’ll have to fight for men’s attention and compete with other women for this ‘limited resource.’ This leads to increased anxiety and other mental health issues among women, while at the societal level, it hinders cooperation and solidarity,” she says.

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These problems are exacerbated when state propaganda supports the idea of traditionalism, as has happened in Russia in recent years. Moreover, Russia’s economy continues to operate within a patriarchal framework: many jobs are simply unavailable to women. Given the shortage of men, this results in a labor deficit.

Another issue tied to the shortage of men and their early deaths is the large number of single mothers in Russia. About 40 percent of all families with children in the country have single mothers, and while society no longer stigmatizes them the way it once did, they remain an especially vulnerable group, tasked with supporting both themselves and their children while often struggling to find stable employment.

“The government is forced to spend substantial amounts of money on their support, but in most cases, it’s unable to protect these women or compensate for the loss of breadwinners,” an analyst from To Be Precise explains. “There are various benefits and support programs [for single mothers], but the level of assistance they provide isn’t enough for a family supported by a single woman to lead a decent life.”

The impact of the war

Around 2006, the gap between Russia’s life expectancy and those in developed countries began narrowing, and the difference between men’s and women’s life expectancies began decreasing, according to Alexey Raksha. By early 2020, Russia’s gender gap had fallen to just under 10 years. The situation worsened somewhat with the COVID-19 pandemic, which Russia responded to less effectively than most Western countries. Then the Kremlin launched its full-scale war against Ukraine. Today, Russia’s life expectancy is lower than it was in 2018–2019, and the gap between male and female mortality has widened to nearly 11 years.

About 2–3 percent of Russia’s male population is involved in the war. But because the average age of these men is 35, their “reproductive value” is much higher than the 2–3 percent figure suggests, according to Raksha: if it weren’t for the war, many of these men would likely be starting families.

“The special military operation has a significant impact on the life strategies even of families and individuals not directly involved in the conflict,” Raksha says. “Some of them decide to leave the country, while others are postponing their reproductive plans due to a sense of instability. As a result, fewer children, including boys, are being born.”

At the same time, according to market reports, alcohol sales in Russia have surged in recent years, which suggests consumption has too, Tartokovskaya says. This could result in additional premature deaths in the years to come, particularly among men. Like the war, alcohol causes deaths primarily among the young. Meanwhile, Raksha predicts the situation will only increase in the near future: “Alcohol consumption and alcohol-related mortality could very well rise among soldiers returning from the front lines,” he says.

The war and the loss of young, working-age Russians is already creating a labor shortage, according to Tartokovskaya. How the government might address this issue is unclear; in Raksha’s view, labor migration is unlikely to be a viable solution.

“Bringing in a large number of migrants is politically disadvantageous for the state: an excess of migrants can spark xenophobia and fuel local resentment. Moreover, migrants are increasingly reluctant to come to Russia: it’s becoming unsafe for them, and salaries in rubles are becoming less competitive in the international labor market due to difficulties with currency transfers and unpredictable exchange rate fluctuations, even though [these salaries] have been increasing markedly,” Raksha says.

At the same time, Russia’s increased male mortality rate may put additional strain on the government’s social policies, according to analysts from To Be Precise: “High male mortality could lead to an increase in widows and single mothers, and if the state fails to act and provide support, this could bring a rise in poverty.”