In Putin’s crosshairs With no peace in sight, Russia inches closer to its goal of fully occupying Donbas

Like our earlier reports on the combat situation in Ukraine, this article takes stock of the recent developments on the battlefield based on open-source information. Meduza has condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine from the very start, and our detailed military analyses are part of our commitment to objective reporting on a war we firmly oppose.

Our map is based exclusively on open-source photos and videos, most of them posted by eyewitnesses on social media. We collect available evidence and determine its geolocation markers, adding only the photos and videos that clear this process. Meduza doesn’t try to track the conflict in real time; the data reflected on the map are typically at least 48 hours old.

Key updates as of August 26, 2025

During his meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump in Alaska on August 15, Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly demanded that Ukraine withdraw its forces from the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, in exchange for Russia freezing the front lines in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions.

Whether or not a peace deal is on the horizon, Putin’s demands shed light on the Kremlin’s short-term military priorities. Russia remains intent on occupying all of Donbas, while other parts of the front are seemingly less important to Putin. The prospect of seizing the city of Zaporizhzhia or the Kherson region now appears to have been set aside. The Kremlin’s likely calculation is that capturing those territories is unrealistic in the medium term, as both would require forcing the Dnipro River.

That said, Putin’s goal of fully occupying Donbas does not appear out of reach. Over the past year, the Russian military has captured more than 4,000 square kilometers (1,550 square miles) of heavily fortified territory in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, even while diverting major forces to the battle in Russia’s Kursk region. Roughly 6,000 square kilometers (2,300 square miles) of territory in Donbas remain under Ukrainian control.

The shape of the Russian offensive also speaks to the Kremlin’s priorities. Russian troops are pressing north from Donetsk toward what the Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) see as their main stronghold in the region — the Kramatorsk–Sloviansk agglomeration. Russian reserves from other parts of the front are gradually being redeployed there.

Previously, Russian commanders had used the city of Pokrovsk as a “decoy,” drawing Ukrainian forces toward it while striking elsewhere. Now, however, its capture is seen as essential for advancing north toward Kramatorsk. But the offensive over the past year has lengthened the front line around Pokrovsk by dozens of kilometers, forcing a change in tactics: large stretches are left undefended, giving both armies opportunities to slip behind enemy lines. These tactical breakthroughs, typically 10–20 kilometers (6–12 miles) deep, have so far failed to produce a full-scale rupture of the front, as they can be contained by drone strikes and the rapid redeployment of reserves.

This unusual battle east and south of Pokrovsk may become the defining clash of 2025. The Russian army holds a significant numerical advantage there, but numbers alone do not guarantee victory.

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Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka

Despite concentrating major reserves near Dobropillia — about three brigades — the Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) have not been able to eliminate Russia’s “breakthrough” between Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka, toward the Dobropillia–Kramatorsk highway. Russian troops continue to hold positions around Kucheriv Yar, roughly 13 kilometers (eight miles) from the front line as it stood in mid-August, before the breach.

The AFU attempted to squeeze the Russian forces that broke through — the 132nd Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade of the 51st Army — from both flanks, and managed to push into Russian defenses near Nykanorivka, at the base of the breach. On the eastern flank, the 51st Army deployed reserves of its own and tried to push through to Shakhove via Volodymyrivka. At the same time, units from the 20th Guards Motor Rifle Division of the Russian 8th Army advanced toward Shakhove from the southeast, from the direction of Poltavka.

Capturing Shakhove, a strategic road hub, would secure the position of Russian troops advancing on Dobropillia. For now, fighting continues around Volodymyrivka. Both Russia’s Defense Ministry and AFU Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi claim their forces control the village, with Syrskyi even using the phrase “the AFU have cleared [it].” Neither side has provided visual confirmation.

Russian commanders do not appear to view the northward push toward Dobropillia as their main focus: most of the 51st Army is pressing westward instead, toward Myrnohrad and around Pokrovsk from the north. Here too, the AFU committed reserves and counterattacked from the northern outskirts of Novoekonomichne toward Malynivka. Russian “war bloggers” critical of the military command claim that Ukrainian forces pushed three to four kilometers (2–2.5 miles) into the positions of the 51st Army’s 5th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade, reaching the village of Myrne. This has not been independently confirmed.

Another 51st Army grouping has so far failed to break through the town of Rodynske to the northern outskirts of Pokrovsk and cut off the two roads linking Pokrovsk to Dobropillia, which run through Rodynske and through Hryshyne.

Meanwhile, Russia’s 2nd Army, which had tried to push into central Pokrovsk with small assault groups from the south, appears to have abandoned those efforts: for the past week, neither the Russian nor the Ukrainian side has released footage of urban combat. Ukrainian forces have claimed the city was “cleared,” though Russian assault troops may still be present on the southwestern outskirts.

Troops from Russia’s 2nd Army have also stepped up activity southwest of Pokrovsk, taking most of Udachne, where their offensive had stalled six months earlier. Ukrainian defenses here, and near Novopavlivka, weakened after the AFU’s 79th Air Assault Brigade, which had been fighting in the area, was redeployed to Dobropillia.

It’s clear that Russian commanders believe further advances northward — toward Dobropillia and Druzhkivka — are impossible without taking Pokrovsk. As a result, they’re likely to attempt a direct assault on the city. Russia’s “Tsentr” grouping has large reserves for such an operation: the entire 41st Army and the 90th Guards Tank Division, previously deployed southwest and south of Pokrovsk.

Another immediate target is Kostiantynivka. After part of the AFU’s 93rd Brigade was redeployed from north of Toretsk (near the eastern end of the Kleban-Bykske Reservoir) to the Dobropillia front, Russia’s offensive in the area accelerated. Russian forces captured most of Oleksandro-Shultyne, advanced to the reservoir shore at Katerynivka, and are now trying to push through Stupochky toward Kostiantynivka itself.

Yet another Russian push is coming from the northern outskirts of Chasiv Yar, aimed at bypassing Kostiantynivka from the north. There, however, their advance is blocked by a major AFU fortified zone at Maiske.

Dnipropetrovsk region

Russia’s “Vostok” contingent continues to push across the Donetsk–Dnipropetrovsk regional boarder, north and west of Velyka Novosilka, despite persistent Ukrainian counterattacks. Russian forces have captured several villages in the valleys of the Vovcha and Vorona rivers.

They also crossed the Vovcha and took the village of Filiya, on the southern outskirts of Novopavlivka. The crisis on the defensive line along the Dnipropetrovsk region’s border appears to have forced Ukraine’s command to send in reserves — possibly even ones drawn from the Sumy region.

Lyman

In the Lyman direction, Russian assault groups broke through Torske and advanced south toward Yampil, the only road link between Ukrainian forces in the Kreminna forests and the rest of Ukrainian-held territory. It now appears that Ukrainian troops may soon be forced to abandon the forests, where fighting has dragged on since the fall of 2022.

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