A political statement What open-source footage tells us about the new ballistic missile Russia launched at Ukraine’s Dnipro

This morning, Ukraine’s Air Force reported that Russia had launched an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) at infrastructure in the city of Dnipro. If confirmed, this would mark the first use of an ICBM since the war began. The report comes amid heightened tensions, as Ukraine has been bracing for a possible Russian response following its recent use of ATACMS long-range missiles against internationally recognized Russian territory. Later in the day, Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed the strike but claimed it involved a new, experimental medium-range ballistic missile, called “Oreshnik,” rather than an ICBM. Meduza’s analysts reviewed the evidence available so far. Here’s what they found.

Two videos, reportedly filmed in Dnipro on the morning of November 21, show objects resembling the reentry vehicles of a ballistic missile falling to the ground. However, noticeable differences in speed and trajectory compared to known test footage from Russian and U.S. ballistic missile trials make it impossible to confirm the missile type based on the footage alone. The examination of debris reportedly recovered at the impact site has also yet to yield definitive conclusions.

The warhead components carried little explosive material, and their scattered impact suggests the strike was neither precise nor intended to cause significant damage. A strike using these types of warheads without a nuclear payload holds no real military value, which appears to support speculation that the attack may have been a political statement — potentially signaling Russia’s technical readiness to deploy nuclear warheads rather than merely using test blocks.

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The Kremlin has reacted sharply to the U.S. decision to approve Ukraine’s use of long-range ATACMS missiles on Russian territory. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called the move “a qualitatively new escalation of tensions.” On the same day that Ukraine launched its first strike on Russian soil using the weapons, Russia updated its nuclear doctrine to permit nuclear strikes in response to “aggression against Russia and its allies by any non-nuclear state supported by a nuclear state.” President Vladimir Putin, however, insisted the changes had been planned “well in advance.” (Putin announced the proposed changes to the doctrine back in September.) 

In a video address on Thursday evening, Putin said the strike on Dnipro was a response to recent Ukrainian attacks on targets in Russia’s Bryansk and Kursk regions using American ATACMS and French-British Storm Shadow missiles. “We consider it our right to use our weapons against military facilities in countries that permit the use of their weapons against our facilities,” he said. “And in the event of escalating aggressive actions, we will respond decisively and symmetrically.”

Any launch of a ballistic missile would typically require Russia to notify the United States — and potentially China — in advance to prevent accidental escalation between nuclear powers. A U.S. official told Reuters that Washington was “pre-notified through nuclear risk reduction channels” about the strike. White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre later confirmed that the administration was aware of the launch. Peskov also confirmed that Moscow had informed Washington in advance, saying an “automatic notification” was issued 30 minutes before the missile launch. Notably, the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv was closed on November 20 for security reasons.