Right weapon, wrong timing Ukraine has been waiting for F-16s for over a year — can these warplanes still change the situation at the front?

In the months following Russia’s full-scale invasion, Kyiv began requesting modern fighter jets to counter Russia’s air advantage. Last year, Washington authorized other countries to send F-16s to Ukraine, although it declined to provide the U.S.-made aircraft itself. Ukrainian pilots have been training to fly the planes, but Ukraine has yet to receive its first F-16. The independent outlet iStories investigated the reasons behind the delays, when the F-16s might reach Ukrainian skies, and whether they can still make a difference on the battlefield. Meduza shares an English-language summary of the outlet’s findings.

Getting the planes

In May 2023, after several months of negotiations, Ukraine’s European allies pledged to supply it with U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets. More than a year has passed since then, and the Ukrainian military still hasn’t received the planes.

When the “fighter jet coalition” was formed last year, Washington granting permission for other countries to send F-16s to Ukraine was key. And although U.S. officials refused to directly transfer the aircraft, citing the risk of escalation with Russia, they did agree to help train Ukrainian pilots.

Ukraine has been promised a significant number of F-16s: 24 from the Netherlands, 19 from Denmark, and 22 from Norway (12 of which are combat-ready, while the others need repairs or will be used for spare parts). On May 28, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that Belgium would supply Ukraine with another 30 F-16s. In total, this amounts to around 100 aircraft. Zelensky has stated that Ukraine needs 120 to 130 fighter jets to achieve air parity with Russia. (According to him, the country presently has 25 percent of this number.) However, the promised delivery times for the F-16s are spread over several years.

Initially, coalition members intended to send a few jets to Ukraine quickly, but these deliveries have faced continuous delays. Denmark planned to send six F-16s in January, which was then postponed to sometime in March or April. A month ago, Reuters, citing a Ukrainian military source, reported that the Ukrainian Armed Forces now expect the planes in June or July.

Delivery schedules from other countries are even less certain. Norway hasn’t specified a timeline, Belgium aims for the end of the year, and the Netherlands plans to send its jets after Denmark. On June 12, Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren said the country would start delivering some F-16s this summer. However, Ukraine’s readiness primarily depends on whether its Western allies manage to train enough pilots in time.

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Getting the pilots

While there’s no detailed information on the exact number of Ukrainian pilots being trained on F-16s, official reports and media publications give a general picture. Ukraine’s Air Force selects experienced pilots who then undergo several stages of preliminary training, including specialized English courses, before flying the F-16s.

In October of last year, a group of Ukrainian pilots began training at a U.S. base in Arizona. On May 23, the U.S. military announced that the first of them had completed their courses. (The U.S. plans to train 12 pilots by the end of September this year.) According to Politico, Ukraine requested that the U.S. train more pilots, but there wasn’t room: training slots had long been allocated to military personnel from other countries that fly F-16s, and the U.S. couldn’t break its commitments. In August 2023, another eight Ukrainian pilots began training at a base in Denmark, and they started flying in January. This means that at least 12 Ukrainian pilots should complete their training in the U.S. or Denmark by July, and 20 by the end of the year.

Sometimes different stages of training take place in separate countries. In March, 10 pilots completed language training and theory courses in the U.K. before heading to France for advanced flight training. According to French media, France is not the only place where the second stage takes place. There are also plans to train Ukrainian pilots at a new base in Romania, though they haven’t arrived there yet. Local media reported in March that the first pilots would begin training in the summer.

By normal standards, the training is progressing at lightning speed, but it’s still not as fast as Ukraine and its Western allies would like, notes The New York Times. Israeli military expert David Sharp believes the intensive program is likely being developed on the fly; NATO countries have retrained Eastern European pilots from Soviet-era MiG-29s to F-16s before, but there was no rush then. Now, instructors face both a time crunch and the pressure to ensure pilots are fully prepared because the cost of mistakes is so high.

Additionally, there must be more pilots than planes. One pilot per fighter jet would mean the plane would sit idle some of the time. “That’s unacceptable, especially since there are so few of them and they’ll be a priority target for Russia,” explains Sharp. According to a Politico source in the U.S. Department of Defense, Ukraine will need two pilots for each F-16. If this is the case, the 12 pilots who should be ready by July will be just enough for the six planes promised by Denmark. The next eight pilots who should be finished with training by the end of the year would require four more F-16s.

The F-16s also need supporting infrastructure, such as reconnaissance and communications systems and technicians. About 50 technicians were trained in Denmark, several dozen were trained in the U.K., and U.S. officials stated plans to train about 200 people. Still, Western specialists will accompany the first planes to Ukraine, according to a New York Times source. They’ll stay until enough local specialists are trained, which could take years. An additional challenge is that the F-16s will be major targets for the Russian military, so Ukraine will need multiple air bases to move the planes around, which, in turn, will require more support personnel.

A time for every weapon

When the U.S. agreed to the transfer of F-16s last spring, Ukraine was preparing for a counteroffensive. Training pilots in time for the operation wasn’t realistic, but experts suggested the fighter jets could be used in future operations in 2024. One retired Ukrainian military pilot predicted the F-16s would play a significant role in liberating Donbas and Crimea. Western analysts were more cautious, typically stating that while the F-16s could be important, they wouldn’t fundamentally change the situation at the front.

When the summer counteroffensive failed, then-Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine’s Armed Forces Valerii Zaluzhnyi cited the lack of modern aircraft as one of the reasons. By 2024, Russia had taken the initiative on the front. The Russian army also began intensifying attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. “Often, we just don’t get the weapons systems at the time we need them,” a senior Ukrainian military official told Politico in April. “Every weapon has its own right time. F-16s were needed in 2023; they won’t be right for 2024.”

When the Ukrainian Air Force finally receives the F-16s, pilots will initially undertake less risky missions, such as destroying Russian cruise missiles and strike drones over western and central Ukraine, says David Sharp. As they gain experience and confidence, they might start approaching the frontline, striking ground targets, and engaging in long-range air combat with Russian aircraft. However, Russian Su-35 aircraft and S-400 missile systems will still pose a significant threat to the F-16s, as Ukraine currently lacks many supporting capabilities of fully-fledged Western-style air forces, such as early warning radar aircraft. Sweden has promised two such planes, but it’s unclear when Ukraine will receive or start using them.

The success of the F-16s will largely depend on the weapons they’re equipped with. In September of last year, a Ukrainian Air Force representative stated that Ukraine would receive the latest AIM-120 AMRAAM missiles for the F-16s, with a range of up to 160-180 kilometers (about 100-110 miles). This type of ammunition could help Ukraine target Russian glide bombers to protect army positions and cities from airstrikes, wrote Forbes. However, Sharp believes the U.S. won’t send the newest AIM-120s, as the F-16s can’t fully utilize their capabilities due to radar limitations. Instead, the F-16s will likely be equipped with shorter-range AMRAAMs that can travel up to 45–50 kilometers (about 28–31 miles). Additionally, if the U.S. supplies anti-ship missiles, these could potentially be used to target Russian Kalibr carriers in the Black Sea.

In order for the F-16s to play a significant role on the battlefield, it’s crucial that they have ample ammunition. A shortage could be one of the reasons for the delays in delivering the fighters: there’s no point in sending planes to Ukraine without munitions. However, the F-16s will also increase the effectiveness of weapons Ukraine already has, such as HARM anti-radar missiles and JDAM guided bombs, says Ukrainian Air Force General Serhiy Holubtsov. Currently, Ukrainian pilots launch these from old Soviet aircraft. As Holubtsov explains, the F-16s allow real-time targeting and in-flight programming — factors that will significantly improve the effectiveness of these weapons.